TWIN WINS

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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.

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Atucha warns there is a tipping point where higher taxes can undermine channelisation, citing the UK and Germany as important case studies.

“I sometimes wish regulators would look at other cases,” he adds. “I mean, what happened in Germany, what’s happening in the UK.”

This risk is particularly apparent when many offshore operators are established brands rather than unknown entities.

What is TWIN WINS?

The transformation has not eliminated all of Cubeia’s concerns. And inevitably some coders are missing their original role.

“We still have people who loved the coding part – solving problems with code and writing beautiful code. They’re struggling with the change. For some people an important part of their work that they genuinely loved is now gone.”

There are also strategic questions around dependence on AI providers.