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In 2021, Judge Gloria Navarro sentenced Rashid to 33 months at the Federal Correctional Institution in Sheridan, Ore., followed by three years of supervised release after he pleaded guilty to one count of using an interstate facility in aid of unlawful activity—specifically, a prostitution service.

According to the FBI, which raided his Las Vegas house on human trafficking warrants in 2014, Rashid “persuaded, induced, enticed and caused hundreds of victims to prostitute themselves for his benefit” beginning in 2002.

“Rashid operated a high-end prostitution business that transported victims across the United States, using various paid websites … to advertise the victims for prostitution purposes,” read a press release from the US attorney’s office, District of Nevada.

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Marantelli identifies White Swan and Susquehanna as two firms operating at industrial scale in parlays, with Jump Trading, Mojo and DL Trading among the possible leading group. Below them are numerous smaller syndicates, some managing between $5 million and $10 million, alongside sports-specific specialists.

Enda Kendrick, chief executive of service provider Veltium, similarly says the largest UK and European sharp-betting groups have moved rapidly into US prediction markets. He believes there are also more than 100 smaller operations, ranging from individual traders to teams of around 10, interested in entering the regulated US market.

Yet the presence of professional counterparties complicates the customer-facing idea that prediction markets merely allow users to trade opinions with one another. As Kendrick puts it, two ordinary customers are not going to place $10 million or $20 million behind the Philadelphia Eagles. Markets at that scale require institutions.

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Beyond offering crypto payment solutions, a number of black market operators are licensed in “light touch” offshore jurisidictions which use opaque offshore operating structures to help to obscure company ownership and make local enforcement against these companies complex, the report noted.

By comparison, the long tail of smaller black market sites rely heavily on affiliates to generate traffic.

Much of the onus for the increasing black market is put on increasingly restrictive policies enforced by regulators across the licensed sector.