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Two years later, I see a post from my friend Robbie Strazynksi of CardPlayerLifestyle, about this guy Bill Beatty looking for a new financial writer for some gambling website called CalvinAyre.com. I said I was interested, didn’t know much about gambling, but I know about finance. I could swing it. Bill gave me a shot, trusted me, and in March 2014, I wrote my first article. Macau stocks were at all time highs, and I wrote that they were about to implode. They did, for the next two years. But not for the reason I thought.
Then my life went into a sort of holding pattern for the next few years. I was getting tired of freelancing. It was too limiting, and I wanted to start my own thing. So in February of 2020, I started to set up the groundwork for going out on my own. It is now up and running at The End Game Investor (EGI). The theme is precious metals investing and trading in the context of the End Game, the end of the financial system as we have known it since 1971, taken from an Austrian Economics perspective.
Then, one month later, the end of the world as we know it actually happened. The Coronombie Apocalypse, everyone masked up and the Fed printed a skrillion dollars and I lost most of my other freelance arrangements as everyone went into hiding and confusion and pandemonium.
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The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.
“It’s not a question of whether innovations like blockchain, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets will transform our markets. It’s a question of where this innovation will take place and who will write the rules,” Selig said during a meeting of the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee on 20 August, which featured the CEOs of Kalshi, Polymarket, DraftKings, CME Group and more.
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